Evangelical elites of all political stripes still dispute Trump, but the question is largely settled at the grassroots.
Next week’s Iowa Republican caucuses formally launch the 2024 primary race that will almost certainly end with a third GOP nomination for former president Donald Trump. When Iowans caucus on Monday, recent polling suggests Trump will easily claim the state’s 40 delegates, with rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis jostling for second place.
Whatever the exact results, the decisions of Iowa’s white evangelical caucus-goers will be much scrutinized in the days to come. But for most of them, I suspect, those decisions have been long since made. American evangelicals’ conversation around Trump has changed dramatically since 2020, splitting along a kind of class line and all but disappearing as an active consideration for the average voter.
In most evangelical circles, the Trump debate is dead.
Let’s start with the exception: Among what some call the “evangelical elite,” this is still a live question. Whether it’s permissible (or required) to support (or oppose) Trump for president is still actively discussed among evangelicals who write books and articles like this one, who attract followings online, who know what “Big Eva” means and how they feel about it, who attend seminary (but probably not for pastoral ministry), and who otherwise participate in The Discourse—wherever they land politically or theologically.
Trump support is a live question for self-proclaimed Christian nationalists on X (formerly Twitter). And it’s a live question for “never Trump” evangelicals at The Atlantic or The New York Times. In Iowa, it’s a live question for Republican kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats, who told CT he’s holding out hope for a DeSantis win.
But for …
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